Jul 30

Exit Long $CMS

It’s not for me to speculate the reasons behind any market move or whether anything is justified or not, but  I find it interesting that those that do, have glossed over the fact in the recent weakness ‘defensive’ names have acted anything but defensively. In fact, they’ve been leading to the downside. Of course, those with a bearish narrative will jump on any weakness as a confirmation of their view, but it’s noticeable to me the exits posted on here recently have mostly been in names defensive in nature, coinciding with the weakness seen in consumer staples, utilities and transports. And yet, just today in another weak session we saw a momentum name like $GILD make new highs, something conveniently ignored by the bears. They seem to have overlooked the possibility that what we’re really witnessing is simply a case of further market rotation rather than the beginning of the much-anticipated correction.

Either way, we will let price decide. For now, we have another exit, with a trailing stop hit on $CMS for a small profit. Even adjusting for the dividend which I know some of you like to do, this has still done enough to warrant us leaving the scene. We still have a long in $SRE on the books which doesn’t look far behind.

Long $CMS 3/17 +3.8% (incl 4/30 div $0.27, 7/30 div $0.27)






Jul 30

Exit Long Yen

Exit Long Yen ($6J_F) 5/21 -$1,850.00 per contract

It’s been two months since we had an exit signal on the futures portfolio, usually an indication there are some strong trends underway, and while that’s the case elsewhere with equities, bonds, and live cattle, it wasn’t the case here in the Yen at all. It didn’t do much of anything for the longest time, and after looking like it was about to resume higher it slid back in the last week culminating in a steep move through our stop today to trigger an exit for a loss of $1,850 per contract.


That leaves:-

Long 30yr ($ZB_F) 2/3 +$6,000.00 per contract

Long Live Cattle ($LE_F) 3/28 +$6,530.00 per contract

Long S&P ($ES_F) 5/13 +$3,887.50 per contract

Long NASDAQ ($NQ_F) 6/26 +$3,090.00 per contract



Jul 29

Exit Long $AIG, $CL

First off I should note that I’ve had a handful of entry signals in the last couple of weeks that I haven’t been documenting here in my usual manner. This is part of the adjustment I need to make on what I publish now that I am managing client money. I still haven’t finalized exactly what I will show here going forward, I may start to do a summary at the weekend after the fact, but all will become clear in the next few weeks. There will be other changes too going forward which I will detail in due course. Please bear with me as I make the transition.

In the meantime, we have two exit signals tonight. Neither of these require much explanation, both are trailing stops for small amounts:-

Long $AIG 4/25 +2.2% (incl 6/6 div $0.125)



Long $CL 6/2 -2.1% (incl 7/16 div $0.36)






Jul 25

Exit Long $BF.B

Long $BF.B 5/19 -0.3% (incl 6/2 div $0.29)

$BF.B had initially continued to edge higher after our entry, but it’s since pulled back over the last 4-5 weeks. The pullback in percentage terms is minimal, but it’s been enough to take out its 20 and 50-day MA’s and close below a trailing stop to trigger an exit for a small loss. Longer-term this is still a huge trend, but we don’t need to hang around to find out if it’s going to eventually resume higher. For our timeframe and our risk parameters it’s done enough for us to step aside; a break of MA’s, a pattern of lower highs and lower lows, and the second straight close below its 10-week MA, which hasn’t happened since October.







Jul 18

Forbes Interview

This week I was interviewed by John Navin at Forbes where we talked about how I approach trend following, how to explain it to your neighbors, and some of the people who have influenced me. You can read it all here:-

Forbes Interview





Jul 17

Exit Long $MCD

Exit Long $MCD 4/15 -1.5% (incl 5/29 div $0.81)

$MCD had briefly looked like it was about to stem the tide and resume its path higher, but the weakness of the last two days now has the look of something more than just a consolidation and was enough to take out our trailing stop fairly cleanly today, triggering an exit for what will be a small loss.





Jul 10

Long Baxter Intl ($BAX)

Long Baxter Intl ($BAX)

A solid move to all time highs by $BAX today, triggering a long signal. Strictly speaking the breakout was actually Wednesday with a marginal new high, but given the weakness in the broader market today this was an impressive follow-through and confirmation of that breakout, also coming on increased volume. Short-term the key support area is $72.83-$72.30 marking the most recent weekly and daily low closes. A break of that will be our initial stop which makes this an attractive risk/reward long entry ahead of earnings next week.






Jul 08

Exit Long $MOS

Long $MOS 3/6 -3.3% (incl 6/3 div $0.25)

Mosaic has done very little over 4 months, with several false starts beyond the initial breakout that first triggered an entry signal. The most recent attempt to move higher did at least allow the stop to be ratcheted up to a higher level, one which has now been taken out cleanly and generated an exit signal for a small loss.






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