Jul 23

Weekend Review

Overview

This is going to be very light on commentary, because let’s face it, nothing has changed. The charts tell the story.

The S&P 500 posted its fourth straight weekly gain to end at fresh all time highs. Breadth is also at all time highs. AAII bullish sentiment slipped to 35.4%, below its long-term average of 38.5% for a record 37th straight week.

Here’s the S&P 500 on a weekly line chart:-

 

There’s still a week to go to close out July, but here’s how it looks on a monthly:-

 

Turning to the other indices, the Dow is at all time highs too:-

 

The NASDAQ is catching up:-

 

The Russell and Mid-caps continue to look strong:-

 

The Transports however are yet to overcome the lower high from April:-

 

Breadth continues to get stronger. Here’s the NYSE Cumulative Advance-Decline at all time highs:-

 

Sector Rankings

Reflecting the further improvement in breadth, all nine S&P Sector SPDRs are above their 20, 50, 200-day MAs.

Technology ($XLK) moved to all time highs, led by a resurgence in Semiconductors ($SMH):-

 

Although not yet at all time highs, Healthcare ($XLV) is once again in a strong uptrend:-

 

Energy ($XLE) weakened but remains above its MAs:-

 

Also worthy of note was the all time high in Real Estate ($IYR)

 

Alpha Capture Portfolio

Our portfolio was -0.9% on the week vs +0.6% for the S&P.

It’s now -0.9% YTD and has dipped 1.3% in the last two weeks while the market has climbed 2.1%. On the surface that’s disappointing, but it reflects the fact the stocks that last month took us positive YTD have since consolidated without invalidating their longer-term uptrends.

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