Jun 24

Weekend Review

Overview

A week which was dominated by the build-up to the UK’s Brexit vote and its aftermath. Friday’s heavy declines inflicted short-term damage to a number of indices and sector trends, but the intermediate uptrend from the February low remains intact.

S&P 500 (Daily)

 

S&P 500 (Weekly)

 

Markets had climbed steadily higher during the week as expectations grew for the remain vote to prevail, but the shock result brought about a stunning reversal Friday, resulting in the S&P’s 80-point range for the week being achieved in a highly eventful 24-hours ending at 3-month lows.

S&P 500 (10 days, 30-min bars)

 

The Dow sports a similar pattern to the S&P on its weekly chart, a 3-month consolidation of the advance from the February lows, and still above its 200-day / 40-wk MA.

 

The decline is more pronounced for the NASDAQ and Transports however, both of which slipped further below their MAs and posted multi-month lows:-

 

Any deterioration in breadth appeared relatively modest with the NYSE Cumulative A/D just off its highs:-

 

Sector Analysis

The only change to the rankings of the S&P Sector SPDRs this week is Utiliities ($XLU) taking over from Staples ($XLP) at the top. As a measure of just how swift Friday’s moves were, Utilities is now the only Sector SPDR above its 50-day MA.

 

Next is Energy ($XLE), Materials ($XLB), Industrials ($XLI), which broke their 50-day but remain above the 200.

 

Lastly comes Technology ($XLK), Healthcare ($XLV), Consumer Discretionary ($XLY), and Financials ($XLF), which all broke back below their 200-day.

Away from the XL’s, Real Estate ($IYR) remains relatively strong just below its highs, Biotech ($XBI) is barely holding that higher low ($IBB has already given it up), and Gold Miners ($GDX) soared to fresh highs:-

 

Alpha Capture Portfolio

Despite Friday’s market slide our portfolio still managed to finish +0.3% on the week vs -1.6% for the S&P 500.

That’s the fourth straight week of outperformance, with our portfolio having posted a positive return for four of the last five weeks. It now stands at -1.98% YTD vs -0.32% for the S&P.

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