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Jul 10

Exiting Long Green Mountain Coffee ($GMCR)

Our oldest position, this blog only started 1/27 and we’ve held $GMCR since 2/4, has finally triggered our stop. We’d mentioned in our weekly updates how we would exit on a clean break of that $71.90 level and we certainly got that today. As of today’s close we are up 50.7% on the position. We will exit at tomorrow’s open.

Green Mountain ($GMCR) +50.7%. Original 2/4 entry post here.

AlphaCapture

It’s worth bearing in mind just what we went through holding on to this trade. Remember when we started out it was well-known that several notable hedge funds were short the name. We didn’t care about that. It was in an uptrend.

It started to move higher, but but but they said, famous-hedge-fund-person is short, how can you buy that thing?

It’s in an uptrend.

Then it kept going. Well, they said, it’s only short-covering. Like that doesn’t count. We don’t care it’s still price and it’s still going up.

Then earnings were coming up. It’s gone up so much they said, any beat is priced in. Ka-boom. Hmmm maybe it wasn’t priced in.

And then today, and somewhat ironically a story that famous-hedge-fund-person is short. Again.

No matter. It is what it is.┬áLuckily for us our rules are fairly simple. When it’s trending we stay with it. When it invalidates we exit. It’s been fun. Hope you managed to hitch a ride.

 

 

 

4 comments

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  1. Kevin

    It was indeed a fun ride. Didn’t quite catch the complete 50% ride, but entered just prior to the earnings. Thanks for sharing this trade.

  2. Newtopips

    Hi Jon,
    Could you shed some light on what rule triggered for exit? You exited because it was below 50D MA? I didn’t understand why you used $71.9 price for exit. The only other thing I see is it broke 78.6% Fib from Nov low to June high. But would like to hear from you. Thanks!

    1. Jon Boorman

      I use previous pivot lows on a daily and weekly closing basis to determine trends, $71.90 was clearly a big level. The fact that it coincided with a break of the 50-day added to its significance. I generally don’t use fib levels.

      1. Newtopips

        Thank You! Jon. Got it. Appreciate your quick response.

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