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Mar 12

Exiting Longs In $CAF and $JOE

We got stopped on two more of our equity longs today at the close. For performance measuring purposes we’ll take tomorrow’s open as our exit. These two have been slowly slipping away, initially slow enough to appear to be countertrends, but in the last few days they’ve suddenly got a little steeper and faster. That’s enough for us.

Bottom line, if this is how they’re acting in a market making all time highs, we don’t want to still be holding them when the market does eventually pause to take a breath.

 

MS China ‘A’ Shares ETF ($CAF) -11.2%. Original 1/31 entry post here.

Initially, even when this was pulling back it really did little damage to it’s intermediate uptrend, but since then, although it continues to do better relative to other China proxies, it’s started to fall away in high volume and in much more of an impulsive style. Today’s follow through to the break of our $24.45 level took it to 2 month lows and triggered our stop. I’m persuaded that $CAF is a good way for us to play China in the future, but for now it has some work to do to create a better risk/reward proposition and bring us back from the sidelines.

AlphaCapture

 

St. Joe ($JOE) -11.5%. Original 2/5 entry post here.

It feels like the more we talked about that $21 level the more it found its way there. We’d remarked the way in which it had slowly ebbed away from us was very much the countertrend in nature, but it’s sliding now. Longer-term this might dig in around that 40-wk but we don’t need to stick around to find out.

AlphaCapture

We’ll do our regular update with charts over the weekend, but the only losing positions we have now are:-

Michael Kors ($KORS) -4.7%

Hopefully you’ve seen us updating on StockTwits and Twitter on this one, we’ve stated a clean break of $55 would be our closing stop, it closed there exactly Monday, and bounced today, so we’re still in for now.

Nike ($NKE) -1.9%

No real damage done yet to the larger trend, but it did gap below the 50dma today on large volume so we’ll watch to see how it acts from here. When stocks are setting up for a breakout this kind of move is always possible. We warned in our original post here that “It’s almost a little too perfect so don’t be surprised to see it have some kind of fakeout, and pull back one last time to test that $53 area and wash out the weak longs.”

All our other open positions are winners:-

SolarWinds ($SWI) +4.7%

JP Morgan ($JPM) +7.3%

Green Mountain Coffee ($GMCR) +17.4%

Aruba Networks ($ARUN) +11.2%

LinkedIn ($LNKD) +42.1%

Google ($GOOG) +9.0%

Time Warner Inc ($TWX) +10.6%

Computer Task Group ($CTGX) +4.7%

PolyOne ($POL) +8.1%

Valeant Pharma ($VRX) +6.3%

Visa ($V) +0.5%

Hertz ($HTZ) +15.2%

On Assignment ($ASGN) +1.4%

Ameren ($AEE) +1.9%

Dominion Resources ($D) +2.7%

Sempra Energy ($SRE) +3.4%

Wisconsin Energy ($WEC) +4.6%

Sprint ($S) +0.2%

Fifth & Pacific ($FNP) +6.3%

Range Resources ($RRC) +2.6%

Microchip Tech ($MCHP) +0.8%

HCA Holdings ($HCA) +2.1%

 

3 comments

  1. Josh

    Curious, who is the “us” that you refer to above?

    “Hopefully you’ve seen us updating on StockTwits and Twitter on this one, we’ve stated a clean break of $55 would be our closing stop, it closed there exactly Monday, and bounced today, so we’re still in for now.”

    1. Jon Boorman

      It’s first-person plural, writing device often used in literary analysis. I’ll frequently say ‘we’ when writing as ‘the blog’ rather than ‘I’ or ‘me’.

      1. Josh

        Got it, wasn’t sure if you were managing the system along with someone else.

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