Jun 17

Weekend Review

Overview

The feverish commentary around the Fed and ‘Brexit’ was far more dramatic than the accompanying price action this week as the market again appears to be traversing a modest consolidation within an intermediate uptrend.

The 10-day view (30-min bars) of the S&P shows the decline of the last two weeks. Wednesday’s post-Fed decline into the close looked climactic in nature and more or less marked the low for the week.

 

Looking at that move in the context of a daily chart, the S&P 500 toyed with its 50-day MA all week.

 

Turning to the weekly on the S&P, the worst that can be said is it’s at 4-week lows.

 

Of the major indices the NASDAQ was worst-hit with a 1.9% decline, closing below its 10 and 40-week MAs, but still above the most recent higher low of over a month ago.

 

The Russell also marked a 4-week low, but remains above its 10-week MA and retains its strong uptrend.

 

Breadth via the NYSE Cumulative Advance/Decline has weakened from the highs of over a week ago but still remains healthy overall (data as at 6/16).

 

Sector Analysis

Of the nine S&P Sector SPDRs, the leading pair remain Utilities ($XLU) and Consumer Staples (XLP), followed by Materials ($XLB) and Energy ($XLE).

 

Then comes Industrials ($XLI), Technology ($XLK), and Healthcare ($XLV) which all closed below their 50-day.

They’re followed by Consumer Discretionary ($XLY) which is hovering just above its 200-day, and lastly by Financials ($XLF) which broke below its 200-day to finish at its lowest mark for over two months.

 

Alpha Capture Portfolio

Our portfolio fell -1.0% this week vs -1.2% for the S&P 500, outperforming the index for a third straight week.

That takes it to -2.2% YTD vs +1.3% for the S&P.

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