Apr 17

Weekend Review and Watchlist

Friday’s move felt bad, down days always do, but let’s keep some perspective here; we’re down 1.7% from the highs, and I suspect it’s because we’re correcting through time more than price that some market observers are frustrated. Having got so close to taking out new highs, Friday’s decline felt like a rug pull, and no doubt knocked a few people off-balance.

 

Monday will mark seven weeks since the market made its all time high, making this shallow pullback a very different experience to the V-shaped moves we’ve grown accustomed to. My friend @RyanDetrick‘s research shows this is the second longest streak in more than 2 years:-

 

Let’s briefly take a closer look at the S&P 500 via $SPY:-

As you can see we’re still very much rangebound. Despite the break of the 50-day MA, there’s really not too much to get worried about until this recent range is broken. That low close from 3/11 is a further 1.7% away, by which time the 200-day (not shown) will be coming into view.

I was reading some remarkably large-font headlines earlier about today’s market and I was thinking they’re either catering to what they believe is their partially-sighted readership, or they think today was some kind of global rout.

Now the only observation I’d make is that in my experience when truly serious down days occur, I’m talking game-changer moves that can end trends or kick-off protracted bear market declines, you’ll often see multiple markets and asset classes become highly correlated, but I didn’t see any evidence of that today. Gold, currencies, bonds, oil, they all had days that weren’t out of the ordinary.

So yes, it was a decline in global markets, but it was isolated to equity markets, and if we’re supposed to believe the causality assigned to today’s move – which morphed from Bloomberg being unavailable (I kid you not, that was an explanation), to China margin restrictions (more plausible), to Greece leaving the Euro (yes, that again), – then I’d expect to see the magnitude of such events extend to the domains of treasuries, currencies, and commodities.

But it didn’t. So let’s just stick to the facts. Equity markets were down today but remain in an uptrend.

Our Marketfy portfolio again outperformed the market, -0.5% on the week vs -1.0% for the S&P. YTD it’s now +12.0% vs +1.2% for the S&P.

Full analysis and commentary on current signals, as well as entry/exit posts, additional trade ideas, and a comprehensive watchlist is available here.

Turning to our watchlist, of the major S&P sectors, the notable change for me this week was the decline in Consumer Discretionary names, as it’s been such a happy hunting ground and a significant contributor to performance.

As impressive as Energy’s resurgence has been on a short-term basis, it’s only just starting to enter my domain. It’s all about what timeframes and methods you trade. Where this can become a problem though, is if you allow yourself to be influenced to any extent by the actions of others.

I know it can be frustrating to see or hear of other traders talking about the killing they’ve made in Energy names or whatever the trade of the week may have been. There’s nothing worse than the feeling of missing out. Well, actually there is. Missing out and seeing someone else make it. That’s much worse. :-)

You know what, it can happen. But don’t let it distract you. You’re still riding healthcare and consumer names they wouldn’t dream of holding for this long, for gains that would take them 50 trades to make.

Know your timeframe. Trade what works for you. Stick to the system.

Here’s a sample of just 8 names from this week’s watchlist:-

$ETFC

 

$AET

 

$ENDP

 

$ELLI

 

$EPAM

 

$FLTX

 

$QLYS

 

$CBG

Full analysis and commentary on current signals, as well as entry/exit posts, additional trade ideas, and a comprehensive watchlist is available here.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Apr 12

Weekend Review and Watchlist

Markets found their footing this week with the S&P climbing 1.7%, just 0.7% from its highs of 6 weeks ago.

Of the nine S&P Sector SPDRs, Consumer Discretionary ($XLY) and Healthcare ($XLV) look the best, but the move that caught my eye was in Industrials ($XLI), obviously helped by the move in $GE, its largest component.

After a choppy overlapping move from its highs, $XLI had a brief test of its 200-day before moving higher this week, leaving in place a higher low, and now looks well-positioned to resume its longer-term uptrend. Aside from the move in $GE, I also like the look of $HON, $BA, and $MMM.

Our Marketfy portfolio fared well with a gain of 2.2% on the week vs 1.7% for the S&P, and is now +12.5% YTD vs +2.1% for the S&P. We had no new signals as several positions that were nearing their stops recovered. We were also able to move our stops higher on a couple of names, and have three more adjustments this weekend.

Full analysis and commentary on current signals, as well as entry/exit posts, additional trade ideas, and a comprehensive watchlist is available here.

There aren’t many changes to our watchlist this weekend which still stands at just under 30 names. A couple of business services names weakened and have disappeared, but consumer discretionary continues to dominate the list followed by healthcare and technology.

Here’s a sample of 10 names:-

$NOAH

 

$TASR

 

$AET

 

$ENDP

 

$WOOF

 

$HILL

 

$JAH

 

$CEB

 

$EA

 

$ABC

Full analysis and commentary on current signals, as well as entry/exit posts, additional trade ideas, and a comprehensive watchlist is available here.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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