Last week’s review indicated the S&P would likely trigger a long signal on a new high, and after marginally failing to trigger Monday, the necessary criteria were met the following night. The S&P continued higher for the remainder of the week along with the NASDAQ, albeit with some increased volatility, and there were also gains on the week in the long 30yr, 10yr, and Pound positions. Elsewhere the Euro remains very close to a long signal, and Oil and Gold are not far behind either, a new high on each may be enough.
Going into next week the 5 open positions are LONG: S&P, NASDAQ, 30yr, 10yr, Pound.
As a reminder, the data and prices on these charts may be shown on a continuous contract basis, and may encompass several rolls from one contract month to the next. The P&L is always shown ‘per contract,’ based on the entry and exit signals posted on this blog.
Here are the open positions by asset class:-
Long S&P ($ES_F) 2/26 +$662.50 per contract
As stated on Tuesday’s entry post, this was a simple resumption of the longer-term trend. The 1/24 break of the 50-day MA triggered an exit for the previous long position, and new highs signaled the correction over and triggered a new long entry. It’s hard to put the emotions of new highs aside, and avoid the circus of pundits in turmoil with valuation models, but sometimes signals that trigger when most are looking for the opposite can be the most rewarding. In that respect the S&P and NASDAQ signals are similar to those of July and September.
Long NASDAQ ($NQ_F) 2/14 +$990.00 per contract
The ascent of the move in the NASDAQ has changed, with some increased volatility and a gentler slope, but there’s no denying the trend of higher highs and higher lows remains intact. At this point a test of the 20EMA and previous breakout level would be perfectly reasonable. Our stop remains a safe distance away just below 3500.
Both rates positions had a strong week finishing just shy of the highs achieved shortly after entry. In both cases the stop is in the proximity of the base of the most recent consolidation producing a favorable risk/reward from here. For both the 30yr and 10yr the front month on a liquidity basis has rolled from March to the June contract.
Long 30yr ($ZB_F) 2/3 +$968.75 per contract
Long 10yr ($ZN_F) 2/3 +$375.00 per contract
Long Pound ($6B_F) 2/14 +$525.00 per contract
Similar in nature to the 30yr and 10yr charts, the Pound rallied back towards the highs following entry. These subsequent moves to highs have previously met with sudden reversals so it will be interesting to see if this plays out any differently. In any case the stop remains comfortably away from any immediate noise and may move to the 1.64-1.65 range in the next couple of weeks if a new high is established.