Alpha Capture

We had several changes to our portfolio this week, exiting longs in LinkedIn ($LNKD), Aruba Networks ($ARUN), Dominion ($D), Wisconsin ($WEC), and entering new longs in Michael Kors ($KORS), Broadcom ($BRCM), Celgene ($CELG), Pier 1 Imports ($PIR), Goldman ($GS), McCormick ($MKC).

This weekend we’ll also post details on 3 additional long entries for Monday’s open in Stryker ($SYK), CR Bard ($BCR), and Alexion ($ALXN). All told this will bring our open positions up to 31, the highest since we started the Alpha Capture blog in late January. This is a reflection of not only how we’ve been able to run our winners, but also that despite the incessant calls for a top by many market commentators, by simply sticking to our process of studying price and trends we continue to see attractive risk/reward setups across many sectors.

For a summary of the performance of all our positions, open and closed, and for links to all their respective entry and exit blog posts, you can visit our performance tab.

Here are our open positions, let’s start as always with our losers:-

Range Resources ($RRC) -1.4%

A better week for $RRC, following through on the previous week’s late recovery.  It’s been flirting with the lower boundary of that long-term breakout level for a while now, and although it hasn’t been costly for us I feel it’s getting to the point where if it doesn’t manage to break and hold above $78 soon, it could rapidly deteriorate further.

Adobe Systems ($ADBE) -2.5%

Having got off to such a great start, breaking out shortly after our entry, $ADBE had a poor week giving back all of its gains and more on increased volume, and ending with a test of the 50-day for good measure. Longer-term the uptrend is intact, and despite the proximity of the 50-day we may still get a test of the $42.18-$41.62 area where I feel the real support lies. As per our entry post, only a clean break of that would invalidate our long rationale.

Goldman Sachs ($GS) -0.0%

$GS is only fractionally below our entry from Wednesday, but it still has a strong setup here for further gains.

Now onto the winners:-

Green Mountain Coffee ($GMCR) +66.1%

Last week we highlighted the need to watch price action into earnings, especially with the high short interest, and we certainly saw an explosive reaction. After beating estimates, raising guidance, and extending their deal with Starbucks ($SBUX), leading many to believe a full bid could eventually be tabled, $GMCR gapped higher and ran, even managing to follow through on Friday with further gains. This is now not only our biggest winner but also our oldest position, so although our entry basis was on a daily, I’m showing it on a weekly chart here for added context. Next resistance is arguably the $82.50-$84.00 area, beyond that it’s the all time high zone of $108-$116.

Google ($GOOG) +16.0%

$GOOG effortlessly tagged on another $35 this week. I’m wary of getting too complacent on any position but it has to be said $GOOG is making attaining new highs look very easy. What’s particularly encouraging to me is that it’s not getting overly extended either; it’s not going parabolic, it’s not severely overbought, there’s no major divergence, and it’s still rising on good volume without appearing exhaustive. In short, it looks sustainable.

Computer Task Group ($CTGX) +7.5%

This one had given us some cause for concern previously without ever invalidating but it really did the job this week, moving steadily away from its rising 20 and 50-day averages, and on increasing volume too.

PolyOne ($POL) +6.4%

Similar to $CTGX above, $POL took longer than ideal to come out of its consolidation, dipping for a second and third time into that support area, but it followed through to the upside nicely this week on good volume.

On Assignment ($ASGN) +7.1%

This had come within a whisker of invalidating for us in the first week after our entry, but it’s slowly fought its way back to reach fresh highs this week. Not the most aesthetically pleasing chart out there, but possibly a good example of how the MA’s are not always the best determinant of trend.

Sprint ($S) +24.5%

$S accelerated away this week surpassing the post-bid highs of 4 weeks ago, perhaps reflecting the need for a higher price tag given the improved market environment, as well as other positive sector comments.

Fifth & Pacific ($FNP) +29.9%

This is a beautiful trend. I thought we might get a good test of the 50-day on that last pullback but it never really materialized, a reflection perhaps of what followed, as price moved swiftly higher again on good volume.

Other winners are:-

Time Warner Inc ($TWX) +20.2%

Valeant Pharma ($VRX) +10.7%

Visa ($V) +12.7%

Hertz ($HTZ) +36.4%

Ameren ($AEE) +8.3%

Sempra Energy ($SRE) +8.0%

Nike ($NKE) +18.7%

Microchip Tech ($MCHP) +1.9%

HCA Holdings ($HCA) +9.3%

Corrections Corp ($CXW) +25.7%

Cerner ($CERN) +2.3%

Packaging Corp ($PKG) +14.4%

Corning ($GLW) +15.4%

Michael Kors ($KORS) +3.3%

Broadcom ($BRCM) +1.7%

Celgene ($CELG) +5.3%

Pier One Imports ($PIR) +3.3%

McCormick ($MKC) +0.1%