HOW’S MY TRADING?
I’m aware of the perils of posting performance numbers so let me make clear what this page represents. It will not be a record of everything I do, but it will be a record of everything I’ve mentioned on this blog. You won’t see me posting successful trades that you had no opportunity to enter.
If I post about entering a trade, the next open will be recorded as our entry price. For exits, when a closing price triggers a stop, the next day’s open will be recorded as our exit price. It’s that simple.
Market close prices trigger entry and exit signals, and resulting trades are executed at the next open.
This gives our performance numbers added credibility. It makes it easy for you to follow the progress of the positions, and most importantly ensures the entries, exits and numbers shown here can be replicated. It makes our blog posts actionable, measurable, and achievable. My main aim for this blog has always been to show what can be achieved with trend following, and demonstrate accountability, personal responsibility, and transparency.
Just so we’re both clear, for my protection and yours, you must first read my disclaimer.
WHAT YOU WILL NOT SEE ON THIS PAGE:-
You will NOT see an overall portfolio return, and you will not see the position size.
The reason for this is simple. Position sizing is unique to each trader’s objectives and risk tolerance. It will significantly influence an overall portfolio return. Because of position sizing it would be possible for 100 people to take every trade shown here, achieve the exact same percentage returns by stock, but have 100 different portfolio returns. (And once you understand and appreciate the significance of that, you are really on to something.) *
Therefore it would be wrong for me to claim an overall portfolio return, implying you would have achieved the same, or to advise position size, as that would be akin to personalized financial advice which I cannot give.
Instead, the most consistent way for me to show performance is to show a percentage return for each trade, and the collective average return for those trades. It is what it is, just a track record of my calls on this blog.
*If you want to know more on this subject I would recommend researching portfolio expectancy, R-multiples, and position sizing. A good place to start is Van Tharp‘s site.
SUMMARY AS OF 12/12/13
OPEN POSITIONS:- Total 28: 21 winners, 7 losers. Average win +17.4%, average loss -3.9%.
CLOSED POSITIONS:- Total 81: 41 winners, 40 losers. Average win +18.2%, average loss -8.3%.
Our most recent review of open positions (12/7) is here.
ALL POSITIONS SINCE INCEPTION (1/27/13):-
Total 109: 62 winners, 47 losers (57% win). The average win is +17.9%, the average loss -7.6%.
Here are the details by direction, stock, entry, exit, return. Click on entry/exit dates for respective blog posts:-
28 OPEN POSITIONS AS AT CLOSE 12/12/13:-
Long $FNP 2/28 +83.9%
Long $PKG 3/25 +44.4% (incl 6/11 div $0.40, 9/10 div $0.40)
Long $GNC 6/10 +28.9% (incl 6/11 div $0.15, 9/10 div $0.15, 12/11 div $0.15)
Long $ACT 7/5 +27.2%
Long $UA 7/5 +38.1%
Long $FEIC 7/11 +14.4% (incl 10/6 div $0.12)
Long $MCK 7/11 +33.4% (incl 8/28 div $0.24, 11/26 $0.24)
Long $EVR 7/18 +30.1% (incl 8/26 div $0.22, 11/25 $0.25)
Long $AAPL 8/6 +21.9% (incl 8/7 div $3.05, 11/6 div $3.05)
Long $TSS 10/15 +3.6%
Long $WWW 10/15 +5.8% (2:1 stock split 11/4)
Long $HOT 10/21 +5.8% (incl 12/11 div $1.35)
Long $CME 10/23 +4.1% (incl 12/6 div $0.45)
Long $DIS 10/23 +2.5% (incl 12/12 div $0.86)
Long $MSFT 10/28 +5.4% (incl 11/28 div $0.28)
Long $ETN 10/28 -1.0% (incl 10/30 div $0.42)
Long $BKW 11/1 -1.5% (incl 11/6 div $0.07)
Long $DISCA 11/1 -6.9%
Long $PCLN 11/14 +4.0%
Long $TRV 11/18 -2.0% (incl 12/6 div $0.50)
Long $ATI 11/20 -5.9%
Long $AMZN 11/25 +2.3%
Long $IR 11/25 +3.0% (adj for 1:3 spin-off of $ALLE effective 12/2)
Long $GOOG 11/26 +2.0%
Long $TASR 11/26 -7.8%
Long $AAP 12/4 +1.6%
Long $LVS 12/5 +2.4%
Long $ITW 12/9 -2.5%
81 CLOSED POSITIONS AS AT 12/12/13:-