HOW’S MY TRADING?
I’m aware of the perils of posting performance numbers so let me make clear what these pages represent. They will not be a record of everything I do, but they will be a record of everything I’ve mentioned on this blog. You won’t see me posting successful trades that you had no opportunity to enter.
If I post about entering a stock trade, the next open will be recorded as our entry price. For exits, when a closing price triggers a stop, the next day’s open will be recorded as our exit price. It’s that simple. For futures trades it may be more difficult to post before entry simply because of time constraints, but the general principle remains the same. In futures markets it should also be noted a position entered at the open of the evening session will bear the next day’s trade date. ie the open for trade date Monday is Sunday at 6pm.
Market closing prices trigger entry and exit signals, and resulting trades are executed at the next open.
This gives our performance numbers added credibility. It makes it easy for you to follow the progress of the positions, and most importantly ensures the entries, exits and numbers shown here can be replicated. It makes our blog posts actionable, measurable, and achievable. My main aim for this blog has always been to show what can be achieved with trend following, and demonstrate accountability, personal responsibility, and transparency.
Just so we’re both clear, for my protection and yours, you must first read my disclaimer.
WHAT YOU WILL NOT SEE:-
You will NOT see an overall portfolio return, and you will not see the position size.
The reason for this is simple. Position sizing is unique to each trader’s objectives and risk tolerance. It will significantly influence an overall portfolio return. Because of position sizing it would be possible for 100 people to take every trade shown here, achieve the exact same percentage returns by stock, but have 100 different portfolio returns. (And once you understand and appreciate the significance of that, you are really on to something.) *
Therefore it would be wrong for me to claim an overall portfolio return, implying you would have achieved the same, or to advise position size, as that would be akin to personalized financial advice which I cannot give.
Instead, the most consistent way for me to show performance is to show a percentage return for each trade, and the collective average return for those trades. It is what it is, just a track record of my calls on this blog.
*If you want to know more on this subject I would recommend researching portfolio expectancy, R-multiples, and position sizing. A good place to start is Van Tharp‘s site.