We had just one change to our portfolio this week, exiting our long position in Sterling ($6B_F) which we detailed here. This had been the one position of our 4 currency futures that survived after the dollar had a sharp reversal the previous week. That dollar strength and related weakness in Yen, Euro, and Sterling continued through this week, and is close to giving us new signals. We’re also close to seeing another long signal in Oil ($CL_F).
For now though, we go into next week SHORT S&P, NASDAQ, 30yr, 10yr, and Gold.
As a reminder, the data and prices on these charts are shown on a continuous contract basis, and may encompass several rolls from one contract month to the next. The P&L is always shown ‘per contract,’ based on the entry and exit signals posted in advance on this blog.
Short S&P 500 ($ES_F) 6/21 -$750.00 per contract
There’s no doubt there are more questions than answers about this market right now, but for us it’s pretty simple: That decline of 6/20 slicing through the 50-day was of major significance, breaking the defining trendline for the last bull leg, and until it is completely retraced and we convincingly reclaim the 1630 level, we are in an intermediate downtrend. So far we’ve seen a bounce from a random level, testing the underside of that break, as well as resistance in the form of the 20 and 50-day averages.
Short NASDAQ ($NQ_F) 6/21 -$420.00 per contract
The NASDAQ is following much the same path as the S&P, but in an even less-convincing fashion, falling short of the 6/12 closing low as well as its MA’s after using up 4 days of fuel to get there.
Short 30yr ($ZB_F) 5/13 +$7,968.75 per contract
In a post Friday entitled What We’re Watching we highlighted the huge support break that occurred in $TLT and the meager rally attempt that’s followed. As we noted there, the big guns of the bond world have been out in force this week, telling us the worst is over. We don’t want to belittle these giants of the industry, but we only want to point out they have a bond fund to sell, several of them in fact, so surprise surprise, they’re bullish on bonds.
Short 10yr ($ZN_F) 5/13 +$4,515.625 per contract
The 127-128 range here will be key. The most constructive thing that could happen is to have a swift move into that area that then consolidates tightly over the following 3-4 days, a distinct possibility given it’s a shortened and likely quiet holiday week. Currently a close above 128^00 would trigger our exit.
Short Gold ($GC_F) 4/5 +$31,920.00 per contract
It’s hard to know what we can add to what’s already been discussed on Gold; it’s still a downtrend, we’re still running it, and to be fair, that’s a nice bounce Friday, the best it’s managed for a very long time. Is it the bottom? We have absolutely no idea. But when it’s over we’ll know, and we’ll be out.