We took a trip to Stop City this week, and ended up making a long weekend of it, exiting Sprint ($S) +18.6% on Thursday, followed by 4 more exits Friday; Corning ($GLW) +11.2%, Stryker ($SYK) -3.9%, Exxon-Mobil ($XOM) -1.2%, and Marathon Petroleum ($MPC) -10.9%. By Friday’s close we had 3 additional exits triggered in Hertz ($HTZ) +27.6%, Broadcom ($BRCM) -7.4%, and Pier 1 Imports ($PIR) -3.5% which will exit at Monday’s open.
Hopefully from the figures above you can see that we have no problem receiving exits signals or stops, we’re cutting small losers, and taking profit on winners we have run for long periods whose trends are now coming to an end. This is what we do. After Monday’s exits we will be down to 24 open positions, from 32 last week. By simply following our process the market acts as a natural filter for us, reducing our risk and exposure as our number of positions decreases.
Here’s the summary of all our positions lifted from our performance tab. Note that the ‘open positions’ as of Friday will include those mentioned above that we’ll exit Monday morning.
SUMMARY AS OF 6/21/13
OPEN POSITIONS:- Total 27: 20 winners, 7 losers. Average win +11.1%, average loss -3.0%.
CLOSED POSITIONS:- Total 32: 11 winners, 21 losers. Average win +13.8%, average loss -9.3%.
ALL POSITIONS SINCE INCEPTION (1/27/13):-
Total 59: 31 winners, 28 losers (53% win). The average win is +12.1%, the average loss -7.7%.
As always we’re all about risk management so we’ll go through our losers first, then highlight some winners. We’ve already seen a lot of exits this week, and we have plenty of others that are very close to invalidating so in this week’s review where possible we’ll highlight those levels.
Adobe Systems ($ADBE) -0.8%
$ADBE had a positive reaction to better than expected earnings, popping back above its 20 and 50-day MA’s before giving back some gains later in the week. The good news is we can move our stop to the top end of the support level around $43 even, a deep test of the MA’s that isn’t immediately reversed should give us warning a bigger test may be about to unfold.
Tesla ($TSLA) -2.0%
Probably one of best looking charts I’ve seen for a losing position, and we’re now in a position where we can move our stop up to a clean break of that $92.59-$91.50 level, so the risk/reward remains very attractive.
Qihoo 360 ($QIHU) -4.5%
$QIHU staged a big break of its 20EMA Friday, but it’s still above our current stop of that $41.05-$40.22 range.
Ambarella ($AMBA) -0.8%
Lockheed Martin ($LMT) -1.9%
Here are the winners:-
Green Mountain Coffee ($GMCR) +60.0%
$GMCR closed below its 20EMA on Friday, a close below $71.90 could see a quick test of the 50-day.
Google ($GOOG) +16.1%
Computer Task Group ($CTGX) +10.1%
PolyOne ($POL) +9.1%
Valeant Pharma ($VRX) +27.1%
$VRX staged a late recovery preventing our stop being triggered. A close below $83.36 may do it now.
Visa ($V) +13.1%
On Assignment ($ASGN) +5.9%
Fifth & Pacific ($FNP) +15.0%
We came very close to an exit on this, a clean break of the $20.41-$20.09 level would do it.
Microchip Tech ($MCHP) +1.6%
HCA Holdings ($HCA) +0.5%
Cerner ($CERN) +1.8%
Another one with a clear invalidation point; a clean break of $94.74-$94.05 will take us out.
Packaging Corp ($PKG) +15.3%
$PKG survived another strong test of the $48.70-$47.60 range which now also houses the 50-day.
Michael Kors ($KORS) +1.3%
Goldman Sachs ($GS) +3.8%
C.R. Bard ($BCR) +5.6%
Weatherford Intl ($WFT) +0.5%
$WFT held support at $13.40, a clean break of that level will trigger our exit signal.
CBOE Holdings ($CBOE) +2.1%
SS&C Technologies ($SSNC) +2.7%
This was a really impressive performance on such a weak day for the market, a brief test of the 50-day at a previous support level and it bounced and never looked back with good volume throughout.
GNC Holdings ($GNC) +3.2%