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Jul 06

Review Of Open Positions – Stocks

It was a good week for our holdings. Having looked as if they might roll over having struggled to break above first resistance, the major indices held firm through the July 4th holiday, then finished the week strongly after a better than expected jobs report.

We had no exits triggered, and entered 4 new longs in $LNKD, $ACT, $UA, $COG which we detailed here, bringing our total number of open positions up to 27.

Here’s the summary of all our positions lifted from our performance tab:-

SUMMARY AS OF 7/5/13

OPEN POSITIONS:- Total 27: 26 winners, 1 loser. Average win +12.1%, average loss -1.0%.

CLOSED POSITIONS:- Total 37: 12 winners, 25 losers. Average win +14.8%, average loss -8.4%.

ALL POSITIONS SINCE INCEPTION (1/27/13):-

Total 64: 38 winners, 26 losers (59% win). The average win is +13.0%, the average loss -8.1%.

 

Tradition dictates we go through our losers first, then our winners. As of Friday’s close we only have 1 position of our 27 longs that’s losing, and that’s one of the four stocks we just entered on Friday morning! In the interests of consistency though let’s stick to our usual format and show it, and then we’ll highlight some winners:-

Cabot Oil & Gas ($COG) -1.0%

$COG gapped higher Friday giving us a less than ideal entry and after fading throughout the day recovered late in the session to still leave it with a favorable set up for an eventual breakout of its recent trading range.

AlphaCapture

 

Here are the winners:-

Green Mountain Coffee ($GMCR) +56.6%

Google ($GOOG) +17.7%

Computer Task Group ($CTG) +18.5% (Ticker symbol changed from $CTGX to $CTG)

PolyOne ($POL) +16.2%

$POL had a strong week, again attempting to move clear of its recent congestion zone with a gap and run on Friday to match the 5/28 all time closing high of $26.63.

AlphaCapture

 

Valeant Pharma ($VRX) +33.6%

$VRX took further steps to move away from support at $84.20-$83.36, resuming its longer term uptrend.

AlphaCapture

 

Visa ($V) +20.3%

$V just continues to shine, when it’s not trending it never gives back too much to invalidate its longer-term trend, and when it resumes it does it with conviction always making you feel like you’re buying the highs, it’s a classic trend following stock. Take a look at any time period over the last 2 years and the chart is the same.

AlphaCapture

 

On Assignment ($ASGN) +13.9%

$ASGN has needed a wide berth but acted well this week staging a strong reversal Wednesday and then following through on Friday to close at fresh highs. A tighter consolidation than we’ve seen previously would be very welcome at this stage and would signal it has built a strong foundation for a sustained move higher.

AlphaCapture

 

Fifth & Pacific ($FNP) +31.7%

Another good example of why we don’t use MA’s breaks religiously, they can sometimes break without invalidating the longer-term trend. $FNP bounced back strongly and finished the week at 52-week highs.

AlphaCapture

 

Microchip Tech ($MCHP) +5.7%

Another one that’s done it the hard way without ever invalidating, Friday’s new closing high can hopefully signal it’s ready to move away from its choppy consolidation and use this as a base for a stronger move higher.

AlphaCapture

 

Cerner ($CERN) +7.3%

$CERN steadily reclaimed the ground above its 20 and 50-day MA’s and following a 2:1 split picked up where it left off, ending the week with a gap and run to an all time closing high.

AlphaCapture

 

Packaging Corp ($PKG) +18.4%

$PKG continues to be a steady performer, it never broke convincingly below its MA’s, and after taking out that descending trendline now looks poised to take out those highs.

AlphaCapture

 

Adobe Systems ($ADBE) +4.1%

After better than expected earnings, broker upgrades, and a few false starts, $ADBE is finally starting to put together some better price action and put in a strong week this week moving up towards the May highs.

AlphaCapture

 

Michael Kors ($KORS) +7.8%

Goldman Sachs ($GS) +3.1%

C.R. Bard ($BCR) +4.0%

Tesla ($TSLA) +18.3%

A huge week for $TSLA as it continues to move higher on increased volume, remember how this felt and looked when we first bought it? Now you wonder what everyone was concerned about. Classic trend following.

AlphaCapture

 

CBOE Holdings ($CBOE) +13.6%

SS&C Technologies ($SSNC) +6.2%

Qihoo 360 ($QIHU) +7.6%

GNC Holdings ($GNC) +3.2%

Ambarella ($AMBA) +0.1%

Lockheed Martin ($LMT) +1.5%

Illumina ($ILMN) +4.6%

LinkedIn ($LNKD) +0.7%

Actavis ($ACT) +0.9%

Under Armour ($UA) +0.4%

 

 

5 comments

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  1. Adam

    Very nice results this week. I hear the tune ‘happy days are here again’, but it only makes me uneasy. Part of it is all the correlation mentioned in your recent Futures post. Like 10 guys climbing a mountain, all hitched together. One slips, the others catch them, a couple slip and the whole expedition might end up at the bottom of a chasm.

    1. Jon Boorman

      :-) Nice analogy. That correlation danger is greater if the trends/trades were all of similar duration but sometimes when all 10 are on at once it can often mean that 5 new ones are taking over from the 5 old ones, like a relay team, they just happen to all be there together for the hand off. The Bonds and Gold trades have been on for 2-3 months now, and the equity shorts are close to getting stopped. It would be no surprise to see them all trigger exits. God knows what Oil or the currency trades could be, they’ve all been so volatile. I’m just glad I don’t have to predict any of this stuff.

  2. J Adams

    John your site and postings are fantastic. In addition your transparency is second to none. One thing I can’t quite figure out, is what is the deciding factor on you entering the trade or setting your stops – for example on entry you seem to put more basis on increase in volume than price action making a new high… have you/will you do an article on it?

    1. Jon Boorman

      I’ve done a few posts on how I enter or what I look for, ‘Genesis of a trade idea’ went through some of them, but that’s something I could expand on. The answer is partly in your question of ‘what is the deciding factor on entering the trade or setting your stops’ as where the stop can be placed determines the risk/reward on the trade and therefore dictates whether to enter or not. With new highs/price action etc the way to think of it is this; I am not against buying new highs per se, I do it quite a lot, but I can only do it where the stop will still be close enough to make it attractive, many stocks that breakout get extended and a stop that truly determines that the uptrend is over will be more than 10-15% away. That’s why I often end up getting long things that look to be emerging from a recent consolidation and about to challenge new highs, the risk/reward is very favorable, and that’s where you use volume to confirm that they are under accumulation to know they stand a reasonable chance of any breakout being successful.

      1. J Adams

        Superbly answered. Thank you

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