«

»

Aug 24

Review Of Open Positions – Stocks

This was our busiest week for quite a while, exiting six positions. $GOOG and $ADBE had already been signaled at the time of last week’s review and were exited at Monday’s open for gains of +13.0% and +0.7% respectively. We received a further four signals during the week, exiting in turn $AMBA -9.5%, $GLW -5.1%, $GS +6.2%, and $HPQ -15.4% after their disappointing earnings.

With the exception of $HPQ, these are all good examples of trends that were struggling to maintain momentum, and in the market conditions we’ve had that makes them vulnerable. In some respects that’s to be welcomed, these relatively weaker names are then the first to go, while the stronger ones survive and continue to lead.

This brought our overall number of positions back down to 33, with many of the remaining positions having strong weeks and resuming their long-term uptrends.

Here’s the summary of all our positions lifted from our performance tab:-

SUMMARY AS OF 8/23/13

OPEN POSITIONS:- Total 33: 29 winners, 4 losers. Average win +19.7%, average loss -1.6%.

CLOSED POSITIONS:- Total 48: 18 winners, 30 losers. Average win +14.8%, average loss -8.8%.

ALL POSITIONS SINCE INCEPTION (1/27/13):-

Total 81: 47 winners, 34 losers (58% win). The average win is +17.8%, the average loss -8.0%.

 

As always we’ll list our losers first, then highlight some winners of note. Here are our 4 losers:-

3D Systems ($DDD) -1.1%

$DDD still looks primed for higher prices but you have to wonder if patience is running thin now with two failed attempts already. I suspect if we retreat to $46 again it could break and unleash a move straight to $42.

AlphaCapture

Dunkin’ Brands ($DNKN) -2.6%

Nucor Corp ($NUE) -1.5%

Santarus ($SNTS) -1.2%

 

Here are our 29 winners:-

PolyOne ($POL) +22.9%

Valeant Pharma ($VRX) +49.8%

On Assignment ($ASGN) +25.5%

Fifth & Pacific ($FNP) +40.1%

Microchip Tech ($MCHP) +9.1%

Packaging Corp ($PKG) +29.3%

A strong advance this week and it makes that $52.03-$51.70 area a clear invalidation point going forward.

AlphaCapture

 

Michael Kors ($KORS) +24.2%

$KORS’s days of behaving badly are clearly a thing of the past, with a pullback that barely met the 20EMA and rallied smartly to end the week at an all time high close.

AlphaCapture

 

C.R. Bard ($BCR) +10.1%

Tesla ($TSLA) +59.4%

A huge week for $TSLA rallying 14% to all time highs. It’s just a trend, looking at a trader, asking him to love her.

AlphaCapture

 

CBOE Holdings ($CBOE) +16.2%

SS&C Technologies ($SSNC) +12.2%

Qihoo 360 ($QIHU) +62.9%

Our current best performer, $QIHU followed-through beautifully from Friday’s monster advance, moving to all time highs and then consolidated for the remainder of the week. That $62.50 support level is now our stop.

AlphaCapture

 

GNC Holdings ($GNC) +13.2%

Lockheed Martin ($LMT) +17.7%

$LMT endured a fairly shallow pullback to the 20EMA and resumed its uptrend with ease this week.

AlphaCapture

 

Illumina ($ILMN) +10.2%

LinkedIn ($LNKD) +27.2%

Actavis ($ACT) +6.9%

Under Armour ($UA) +20.0%

Cabot Oil & Gas ($COG) +7.7%

$COG hasn’t put together the smoothest of trends but in the last few weeks it’s paid a dividend, had a 2:1 split, and given back very little in recent market weakness, moving back to all time highs this week.

AlphaCapture

 

Netflix ($NFLX) +18.4%

Very strong action from $NFLX with two wide-range days on increased volume (not shown), with a very tight consolidation inbetween, this is classic behavior of a stock under significant accumulation.

AlphaCapture

 

FEI Company ($FEIC) +3.3%

McKesson ($MCK) +4.2%

Evercore Partners ($EVR) +9.7%

EMC Corp ($EMC) +3.8%

FleetCor ($FLT) +18.0%

Textbook breakout on increased volume from a narrow range consolidation.

AlphaCapture

 

Proto Labs ($PRLB) +10.7%

$PRLB has been pretty volatile in a $10 range since we’ve held it. It’s great to see all time highs again, but until it moves beyond here and consolidates it’s hard for us to move our stop away from its initial level.

AlphaCapture

 

Green Mountain Coffee ($GMCR) +9.6%

I’m showing this on a weekly chart to give some perspective. You can see when we held it earlier this year for a 53% gain. We got stopped out, then it setup and triggered again for us. After briefly coming close to our stop, this week it broke higher again taking out levels not seen since it began a precipitous decline nearly 2 years ago.

AlphaCapture

 

Apple ($AAPL) +7.8%

TASER Intl ($TASR) +22.1%

An extraordinary move, $TASR continued higher every day this week, extending its run to nine days straight. Admittedly it’s a nice problem to have, but the biggest issue with moves like this is not being able to readily place a stop higher from your initial level. Arguably the 5/28 closing high of $9.59 may be suitable, but in reality you just have to wait for some form of consolidation to take place, as it surely will, to determine how it acts from there.

AlphaCapture

 

 

 

 

2 comments

  1. Keith

    >CLOSED POSITIONS:- Total 48: 18 winners, 30 losers. Average win +14.8%, average loss -
    >8.8%.

    There probably isn’t enough data here to put my Van Tharp teachings to work but has this been a positive expectancy system? A 37.5% win rate with the average winner being about 1.7x the size of your average loser, that feels pretty close to break even. Thoughts?

    1. Jon Boorman

      It’s a positive expectancy system, but I don’t show the expectancy, position size or R multiple distribution. Bear in mind if you’re only going to look at closed positions you don’t have anywhere near enough of a sample to make conclusions, you are only looking at closed positions since the blog started late January, and we still have many positions open from near that time as we hold positions for months, and have many open with huge wins of 30,40,50,60,75%. Admittedly they’re not winners until they’re closed but it’s highly likely many of these will still result in substantial gains and will reflect very favorably on the statistics.

Leave a Reply