Mar 02

Review Of Open Positions – Stocks

We currently have 22 open stock positions. Let’s list them and where I feel comment is necessary I’ll add the chart. As always we’ll start with the losers, we’re accountable here and we always need to keep them at the top of our screen so we can recognize and react appropriately when our entry rationale is invalidated. Looking after winners is easy, you do nothing.

Losers first:-

SolarWinds ($SWI) -0.6%

This is starting to look interesting again, depending where you draw your lines (I prefer to use closing prices not intraday), we’ve already broken out of the long consolidation triangle. A close above $58 should seal the deal.



PolyOne ($POL) -2.1%

I said in a previous update I’d be wary of using a break of the 50-day as a stop as it appears to have overrun it several times in the past, and instead I see the $20.14-$20.74 as much more pivotal to keeping the uptrend intact. There’s been a bit more volume on the down moves which is a concern but price is our final arbiter and it’s done what’s necessary twice coming back from a decent test of the 10-week.



Visa ($V) -0.6%

I’ve talked about this one a lot and it featured heavily in my Nickels and Steamrollers post. Just looking at the chart again now it looks fine but I’ll be honest, it seems to be taking longer than I expected to reassert itself. I mentioned in my previous post on Visa here that it’s relative performance to $MA and $SPY bears watching, and it turned down vs both of them this week. To be fair it’s not exactly costing us anything to wait, maybe it’s testament to what could follow if after such a stellar run the most it pulls back here is just a few percent. Patience.



On Assignment ($ASGN) -9.9%

Similar to the commentary on $POL we noted the $20.60-$20.90 level is the real test of this uptrend, not the moving averages, and so it has proved. There’s still plenty of work to do though, those averages may have more effect acting as resistance than they did as support, giving weak holders an excuse to bail on names seen as riskier in an overbought market.



MS China ‘A’ Shares ETF ($CAF) -5.2%

St. Joe ($JOE) -8.4%

Computer Task Group ($CTGX) -0.0%

Sprint ($S) -1.9%


And here are the winners:-

Green Mountain Coffee ($GMCR) +5.2%

$GMCR held up remarkably well during the recent market volatility, acting strongly after a test of support. It’s always interesting to see which stocks lead when a market recovers lost ground, and $GMCR was one of those names last week. It may pause here a moment as it tackles a previous high with some divergence evident (not shown), but with the recent spate of accumulation days I would expect any consolidation here to be short-lived.



Aruba Networks ($ARUN) +6.8%

It never pays to get too attached to certain stocks, but I do feel a little proud of this trade because my original basis for entry was all contained within this long-term weekly chart, and we had to endure a fair amount of volatility in the last 4 weeks to see it get here. At no point was our rationale ever invalidated though and it looks to be on its way.



LinkedIn ($LNKD) +37.7%

As I said to the short-sellers this week: “Why pick a fight with the strongest guy in the room?”



Google ($GOOG) +6.2%

This chart is about the only thing that would still look good if it were wearing Google glasses.



Hertz ($HTZ) +8.8%

News is noise. It can be hard to concentrate on price alone when events are pushing your stock and emotions around, but price is the final arbiter in a rules-based strategy and can keep you in when distractions have you heading for the exit. Just eyeballing the $HTZ chart it had three range days of around 6-8%. That scary black reversal candle from 2/25 would have been enough to shake out weak longs who probably felt lucky to get out with any profit at all. If you stuck with the trend however you made it all back in the next three days.



Ameren ($AEE) +2.1%

There are some people that will tell you when sectors like the utilities are leading it’s bad for the overall market. Maybe, maybe not. We don’t really care about that. We don’t need to understand why something goes up or down and worry about the implications. We just need to recognize a trend and follow it. $AEE has underperformed our three other utility longs, but it has easily the smoothest trend. You ride the elevator, I’m taking the stairs.



JP Morgan ($JPM) +4.4%

Michael Kors ($KORS) +0.3%

Time Warner Inc ($TWX) +5.1%

Valeant Pharma ($VRX) +1.8%

Dominion Resources ($D) +3.4%

Sempra Energy ($SRE) +3.0%

Wisconsin Energy ($WEC) +4.1%

Fifth & Pacific ($FNP) +1.5%


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