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Nov 24

Review Of Open Positions – Stocks

In last week’s review we noted how a number of our long-time winners had been a little slow to emerge from their most recent bases, potentially a sign of some rotation, and we saw further signs of that this week even as the broader market recovered from early weakness to finish at all time highs.

Throughout the year I’ve often noticed 10-12 of our names each week in the IBD 50. This week that number is down to just 5, the lowest all year, and yet the number of potential setups are at their highest. Clearly, some, but not all, of the high growth momentum names that have featured strongly in our portfolio for most of the year are starting to take a back seat, without necessarily invalidating their longer-term trends, and leadership now appears to be coming from a variety of sectors and stock criteria.

Although we have to be careful not to venture too deep into the reason or justification behind any stock or sector’s movement, as a market technician it is hard for me to conclude that this is anything but bullish longer-term as the market looks to a new set of generals to lead the next advance.

Let’s recap this week’s changes to the portfolio and then review where we stand overall.

On Monday we entered $TRV, and later in the week $ATI. We also got stopped in $GME for a loss of 8.00% after disappointing earnings hit the stock. After Friday’s close we got two further long signals for Monday’s open in $AMZN and $IR which we will detail in a separate post.

Here’s the summary of all our positions lifted from our performance tab:-

SUMMARY AS OF 11/22/13

OPEN POSITIONS:- Total 29: 24 winners, 5 losers. Average win +18.5%, average loss -2.4%.

CLOSED POSITIONS:- Total 73: 36 winners, 37 losers. Average win +19.5%, average loss -8.5%.

ALL POSITIONS SINCE INCEPTION (1/27/13):-

Total 102: 60 winners, 42 losers (59% win). The average win is +19.1%, the average loss -7.8%.

 

As always, we’ll list our losers first, then go on to the winners. Here are our 5 losers:-

Suncor Energy ($SU) -1.0%

O’Reilly Automotive ($ORLY) -2.9%

Burger King ($BKW) -3.6%

$BKW has been disappointing so far, easing back since our entry without ever invalidating its longer-term trend. It’s currently sat just below its 20EMA with the 50-day also in close proximity which may help underpin it here.

AlphaCapture

 

Discovery Comms ($DISCA) -3.6%

$DISCA never made any attempt to follow through on the breakout that triggered our entry, and despite showing relative weakness, is still in a technically strong position, sitting above all its MA’s in a long-term uptrend.

AlphaCapture

Allegheny Tech ($ATI) -0.9%

 

Here are our 24 winners:-

On Assignment ($ASGN) +38.0%

Fifth & Pacific ($FNP) +91.0%

We’ve ridden some big winners this year in great momentum names; $QIHU, $TSLA, $TASR and even $VRX, but you would never have suspected the one that could beat them all would be $FNP. This has been quietly working away in the background the whole time and just when we thought we’d seen an already good performance get very extended it exceeded its own standards this week bolting higher from the previous week’s consolidation. That move allows us to move our trailing stop all the way up to $30.02 assuring we should take away a healthy gain.

AlphaCapture

 

Packaging Corp ($PKG) +49.9%

GNC Holdings ($GNC) +30.4%

Actavis ($ACT) +31.6%

Under Armour ($UA) +32.0%

FEI Company ($FEIC) +19.1%

McKesson ($MCK) +38.9%

$MCK had spent the last 2-3 weeks consolidating its recent gains but now looks to be fully resuming its trend with a strong finish to the week. That allows us to move our trailing stop higher for a sixth time, now up to $150 even.

AlphaCapture

 

Evercore Partners ($EVR) +28.7%

Dunkin’ Brands ($DNKN) +8.5%

$DNKN has started to put in a labored performance again but the action of the last 3 weeks, that choppy overlapping price action, is the hallmark of a countertrend. It’s doubtful it pulls back much further from here, but regardless, if we see a break of that ascending trendline and a close below our $46.20 stop level, we’ll be out.

AlphaCapture

 

Nucor Corp ($NUE) +11.4%

Apple ($AAPL) +12.5%

Apache Corp ($APA) +7.8%

Our energy sector names have been slow to get going, but $APA is emerging as the best of them with a strong move this week to take out the September 2012 highs on the weekly chart, with no clear resistance until $110.

AlphaCapture

 

Total SA ($TOT) +5.7%

Total System Services ($TSS) +4.0%

Wolverine World Wide ($WWW) +6.9%

This is an interesting example of how a stock that triggered an entry from a breakout, but then came straight back without invalidating, later rebuilt enough momentum to breakout more convincingly second time around.

AlphaCapture

 

Starwood Hotels ($HOT) +4.8%

CME Group ($CME) +8.4%

I’m showing this on a zoomed-in daily view just to count those green volume bars. That’s 11 straight advances, and volume is picking up too, so that’s some serious momentum and accumulation. Our stop is still down below $74 but with some kind of consolidation at current levels we should see that move up to the breakout level soon.

AlphaCapture

 

Walt Disney ($DIS) +2.0%

Microsoft ($MSFT) +6.3%

Eaton Corp ($ETN) +2.4%

Starbucks ($SBUX) +0.1%

$SBUX has done a whole lot of nothing since our entry 3 weeks ago, but still looks great doing it. This very much remains a strong uptrend longer-term, and an entry here still offers excellent risk-reward. Interestingly, this is one rare example of how when a stock keeps moving sideways our stop can still move higher. We’re not there yet, but another week or two of not advancing this trend could see us move our stop up to around $78.70 where the 50-day also currently resides. This is what I mean when I say stops can be a function of time as well as price.

AlphaCapture

 

Priceline ($PCLN) +2.3%

Travelers ($TRV) +1.9%

One of our most recent positions and after briefly pulling back in line with the market, it appears to be on its way again now, ending the week with an impressive two-day advance on increased volume to fresh highs.

AlphaCapture

 

 

 

 

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