We had a busy week in our stocks portfolio with plenty of signals as many of our trailing stops got hit, prompting us to take profit on over a third of our names. It started with our exit in $TASR for a gain of 51.7%, a signal which had been triggered the previous Friday, and as the market continued to move lower we had exits in $LNKD for 25.6%, and then a slew of names on Wednesday and Thursday, including $QIHU and $KORS. With the big rally on Thursday and Friday we received no further signals and ended the week with 19 longs still intact.
While it might sometimes be difficult to see something bounce back after you’ve exited, as a trend follower it’s something you have to live with. Stops are there for your protection, obeying a stop is never a bad call, you can’t look at a stock the next day and because it went up 3% think it was a mistake to exit. We take our profit when the signal hits, step aside and move on. If it happens to set up again we will gladly pay it another visit and ride it again should it trigger for us. In the meantime, the strongest most sustainable trends remain.
Here’s the summary of all our positions lifted from our performance tab:-
SUMMARY AS OF 10/11/13
OPEN POSITIONS:- Total 19: 17 winners, 2 losers. Average win +24.4%, average loss -1.6%.
CLOSED POSITIONS:- Total 67: 33 winners, 34 losers. Average win +16.9%, average loss -8.4%.
ALL POSITIONS SINCE INCEPTION (1/27/13):-
Total 86: 50 winners, 36 losers (58% win). The average win is +19.4%, the average loss -7.9%.
We’ll list our losers first, then go on to the winners. Here are our 2 losers:-
CIGNA Corp ($CI) -0.9%
With the strong rally late in the week $CI made further progress from its mid-September mauling. It may be premature to suggest the worst is over, but regardless for now our stop remains a close below $76.86.
Suncor Energy ($SU) -2.2%
A slight decline on the week despite the strong recovery, but this uptrend is still very much intact longer-term.
Here are our 17 winners:-
Valeant Pharma ($VRX) +64.7%
On Assignment ($ASGN) +34.3%
$ASGN came remarkably close to taking out our 8/30 stop at $30.17 on a closing basis. Wednesday’s close of $30.45 now becomes our stop, which is a healthy distance with the all time highs in easy reach.
Fifth & Pacific ($FNP) +48.4%
What government shutdown? You wouldn’t know there was anything of note in this week’s market moves from looking at $FNP, kicking off the week with a huge gain, barely retracing anything while the market sank lower, but participating again fully with the end of week rally to finish at fresh highs.
Packaging Corp ($PKG) +37.8%
Tesla ($TSLA) +76.0%
I will admit that I was slightly nervous that every man and his dog seems to have their stop around our $160 level, so if anything I was surprised it didn’t attempt to take it out, even intraday, as markets fell heavily. In the end it got close but soon recovered, keeping the uptrend and many long-term longs including ours intact.
GNC Holdings ($GNC) +21.9%
Long-term uptrend clearly intact, our stop can now be safely moved up to the 8/30 close of $50.87.
Actavis ($ACT) +13.1%
Under Armour ($UA) +28.6%
Netflix ($NFLX) +28.0%
FEI Company ($FEIC) +13.3%
McKesson ($MCK) +17.5%
A huge week for $MCK, gapping higher midweek and reclaiming those levels to finish at all time highs.
Evercore Partners ($EVR) +14.8%
A strong finish to a volatile week, Tuesday’s low close of $45.67 now becomes our stop.
Dunkin’ Brands ($DNKN) +2.9%
The ascending trendline for $DNKN has saved the day yet again, our stop remains a close below $42.99.
Nucor Corp ($NUE) +4.9%
Apple ($AAPL) +6.0%
Not much has changed here. Don’t listen to short-term noise. It’s an uptrend. It was two months ago, it is now.
Apache Corp ($APA) +0.2%
Total SA ($TOT) +3.1%
A steady recovery since opening at the low print for the week, $TOT finished at fresh 52-wk highs.