A good week for the market and our portfolio overall. The NASDAQ continues to outperform the S&P, and although the broader market remains 3% off the 8/2 top, we saw many of our names move to fresh highs this week. We also entered two new positions; CIGNA Corp ($CI), and Iconix Brand Grp ($ICON) which we detailed here.
Here’s the summary of all our positions lifted from our performance tab:-
SUMMARY AS OF 9/6/13
OPEN POSITIONS:- Total 32: 30 winners, 2 losers. Average win +20.6%, average loss -1.4%.
CLOSED POSITIONS:- Total 51: 20 winners, 31 losers. Average win +14.8%, average loss -8.9%.
ALL POSITIONS SINCE INCEPTION (1/27/13):-
Total 83: 50 winners, 33 losers (60% win). The average win is +18.2%, the average loss -8.4%.
As trend followers we don’t need to do much with the winners, we just let them run. It’s the losers we need to keep on top of, which is why we always show them first in these reviews. Here are the two we have:-
Dunkin’ Brands ($DNKN) -1.9%
$DNKN started and ended the week with a test of its 3-week range, but again finished the week without resolution. A clean break of $42.50 remains our stop.
Nucor Corp ($NUE) -0.9%
The pullback from the mid-August highs did some damage but never invalidated the longer-term long rationale. $NUE came close to testing the ascending trendline and 200-day (not shown), but has so far recovered well.
Here are our 30 winners:-
Valeant Pharma ($VRX) +50.9%
On Assignment ($ASGN) +30.0%
There’s a lot to like about this week’s move in $ASGN. The previous week’s daily and weekly low close of $30.17 has the potential to act as a stop with a further advance from here, coinciding with the 50-day. I also like this descending triangle formation it emerged from this week, it’s a great continuation pattern and suggests it should comfortably be able to resume its longer-term uptrend from here.
Fifth & Pacific ($FNP) +38.4%
Microchip Tech ($MCHP) +8.6%
Packaging Corp ($PKG) +26.7%
Michael Kors ($KORS) +29.6%
C.R. Bard ($BCR) +13.3%
I always say it, and it bears repeating until it’s no longer the case, but this is a woefully under-followed name which effortlessly climbed to all time highs this week.
Tesla ($TSLA) +64.4%
SS&C Technologies ($SSNC) +13.1%
Qihoo 360 ($QIHU) +85.0%
Trailing a stop on such a rapidly rising stock is notoriously difficult, realistically this is currently all about how it acts should it return to the $73-$69 range, but the dynamics of this trend make a volatility stop more likely.
GNC Holdings ($GNC) +16.8%
$GNC has been quiet for a while, consolidating the big breakout in late July, but it looks to be ready to move higher again now. I believe it has a dividend next week but I don’t think that’s a big factor.
Lockheed Martin ($LMT) +17.0%
Illumina ($ILMN) +10.0%
$ILMN came very close to triggering our stop around $76 but recovered well and is setting up for higher prices.
LinkedIn ($LNKD) +34.0%
What an incredible week for $LNKD. It might be a fun exercise weeks and months from now to show people this chart and ask them to pick out when the $1.2bn secondary was announced and completed. I’d guess they’d go for that three-day nasty 6% pullback from 8/13, not the 5% gain of this week. Only price pays.
Actavis ($ACT) +9.7%
Under Armour ($UA) +26.7%
Another solid week from $UA climbing to new highs on increased volume. A tight consolidation of this move should mean we can trail our stop up to the previous week’s close of $72.64.
Cabot Oil & Gas ($COG) +7.4%
Netflix ($NFLX) +24.0%
3D Systems ($DDD) +6.2%
FEI Company ($FEIC) +5.6%
McKesson ($MCK) +4.9%
Evercore Partners ($EVR) +15.6%
$EVR put together four straight days of gains in this holiday shortened week, all on increased volume, and finishing the week at all time highs. Hard to think of a stronger set of technical conditions than that.
EMC Corp ($EMC) +3.9%
FleetCor ($FLT) +18.6%
Proto Labs ($PRLB) +12.7%
Green Mountain Coffee ($GMCR) +5.2%
Apple ($AAPL) +7.2%
It’s still early days (and we don’t care what happens), but it’s worth remembering when we entered this, right below the 200-day, we had people telling us we were late, we top ticked it etc etc. Now of course it’s obvious you should own it! It’s so cheap etc etc. It never changes. Ignore the noise. Take your entry. Follow the trend.
TASER Intl ($TASR) +30.0%
$TASR posted its fourth straight week higher on huge volume. It’s been showing signs of consolidation along the way which is welcome. We have a pivot low at $11.15 coinciding with the 20EMA which can act as a stop should we advance further again, and higher up, there’s the $11.64 August close just below the 10EMA. It’s also apparent the four down days of the last month have all been on lower volume than the preceding day, another good sign.
CIGNA Corp ($CI) +0.7%
Iconix Brand Grp ($ICON) +0.8%