Oct 09

Trend Following Update – Entering Short Crude Oil

Our stock positions have taken center stage recently with so many great trends in leading stocks coming to an end and triggering trailing stops, that we haven’t needed to make much comment regarding futures this week. The most significant move has obviously been in equities with the S&P and NASDAQ continuing to weaken and getting very close to our stops.

Since our weekend update the weakness in bonds and currencies has been modest in comparison, while Gold is again threatening to pay another visit to the lows of last week and August. The Yen remains rangebound and we have no likely signal yet, but we do have a short entry in Crude Oil which we’ve executed at tonight’s open.

This now makes us LONG S&P, NASDAQ, 30yr, 10yr, Euro, Pound, Gold, and SHORT Dollar, Oil.

Short Crude Oil ($CL_F) 10/10 -$100.00 per contract

Crude has struggled to regain any upward momentum since we hit our trailing stop on our long nearly two weeks ago. We saw a reasonable bounce back up to the 20EMA but it failed to build on that and sank back to make a fresh low today and trigger our short entry. We might see a further attempt to retake those MA’s on any relief rally should the government shutdown be resolved, but initially our stop needs to be a breach of the 9/18 close which failed to produce any follow through rally to new highs, triggering the selloff that took out major support.



Our existing positions are as follows:-


Long S&P ($ES_F) 9/18 -$2,337.50 per contract

Long NASDAQ ($NQ_F) 7/18 +$1,390.00 per contract


Long 30yr ($ZB_F) 10/4 -$593.75 per contract

Long 10yr ($ZN_F) 10/4 -$453.125 per contract


Short Dollar ($DX_F) 9/19 -$265.00 per contract

Long Euro ($6E_F) 9/19 -$75.00 per contract

Long Pound ($6B_F) 9/12 +$781.25 per contract


Long Gold ($GC_F) 8/16 -$6,350.00 per contract





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  1. Steve T

    Jim, you got “sucked” into your Long S&P futures position by that Sep 18 Fed “one day wonder” hysteria. I realize you have a proven, emotionless trend following system that you utilize. However, I beg of you to consider this: if S&P bounces from here and back up to relative highs just below 1690 by Oct 21 then dump it on that day and rebuy it back near close of Oct 31. Guaranteed better entry point!!! If you somehow act on this advice (which is contrary to your system) and profit huge then send me some beer.

    1. Jon Boorman

      Actually we got long the night before the ‘one day wonder’, not after it. And who’s Jim?

      1. Steve T

        Oops, sorry about the typo Jon. Anyways, please watch both those key dates of Oct 21 and 31 closely, especially how it reacts intraday off relative top (21) and bottom (31 or Nov1). I do not think you will be disappointed … cheers!

        1. Adam

          Steve your trade lost money. I don’t know how Jon feels, but I’m definitely disappointed.

  2. Kevin

    Is there a way to go short crude via etf or puts?
    Thank you

    1. Jon Boorman

      I don’t use these but it might help http://finance.yahoo.com/news/4-ways-short-oil-etfs-160146635.html

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