Aug 21

Trend Following Update – Entering Short S&P

Just two nights ago we received an exit signal for our long S&P position, and with today’s renewed weakness, breaking a previous low and support area, we got the signal to go short which we executed at tonight’s open.

We go into Thursday SHORT S&P, 30yr, Dollar, and LONG NASDAQ, Euro, Oil, Gold.

Let me again underline as I did Monday night when we exited the S&P long position, that the signals for our futures system are not related to those of our stocks portfolio. Being short the S&P does not make me ‘bearish’, ‘negative’ or even ‘hypocritical’, frankly I don’t even have a view, it’s just a trade. It’s not a top-down view that has implications for our stock positions, they all exist on their own merits, and many are still in long term uptrends.

The futures signals are based on criteria of trend definition, strength, and efficiency. They can often be wrong or late. Like many trend following system’s signals they either lose small and quickly, or win big and slowly.

Short S&P ($ES_F) 8/22 +$0.00 per contract

Since the break of the 50-day and 1646 support that triggered our long exit, the S&P has struggled to make any headway, again failing to hold onto gains above the 50-day today, and after some fun and games around the Fed minutes, giving way to post an ugly close near session lows. In doing so it moved to a 6-week low and took out another minor support level around 1639. I don’t use price targets but it’s clear the next major level of support is the wide band from 1610 to 1590 that was a fiercely fought battleground in early June and July.


Our other open positions are as follows:-

Long NASDAQ ($NQ_F) 7/18 -$285.00 per contract

Short 30yr ($ZB_F) 5/13 +$13,687.50 per contract

Short Dollar ($DX_F) 7/23 +$745.00 per contract

Long Euro ($6E_F) 7/22 +$2,437.50 per contract

Long Crude Oil ($CL_F) 7/5 +$2,680.00 per contract

Long Gold ($GC_F) 8/16 -$80.00 per contract





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