We saw further downward momentum in crude oil today, breaking support and triggering our exit which we’ve executed at tonight’s open for a profit of $2,440.00 per contract.
We were a whisker away from getting an exit signal in our short 30yr position too. That’s been a great downtrend since our entry in mid-May but it looks inevitable it will give us an exit very soon. We’ll wait for price to confirm.
Currently we are LONG S&P, NASDAQ, Euro, Pound, Gold, and SHORT 30yr, Dollar.
Long Crude Oil ($CL_F) 7/5 +$2,440.00 per contract
Many find this concept difficult to grasp, but when trend following on a longer-term basis you need to be prepared to give up some gains in order to be sure the trend (at least for your timeframe) is over. Hindsight is a wonderful thing. Not surprisingly I’ve had some flak from traders incredulous that we could ‘give back’ so much profit, pointing at the highs around $110+ saying they would’ve taken it off there, after all, it was overbought, extended, the RSI was over 90 etc etc. Sure you would. What they forget is, when we entered the trade it was up for 7 of the last 8 days, they said we were buying the top, it was overbought, extended, the RSI was over 90 etc etc.
You think you would have taken profit above $110? You wouldn’t have even been in the trade in the first place.
Only a trend follower would’ve taken that trade. If you believe being right is more important than making money, if you are psychologically wired in such a way that you will struggle to let a once-profitable position turn into a losing one, even though it could lead to a far more substantial gain if you did, then trend following is most definitely not for you. You won’t be able to do it. So don’t. But also don’t give a hard time to those of us who can and do.
Here are our remaining positions by asset class:-
Long S&P ($ES_F) 9/18 -$600.00 per contract
Long NASDAQ ($NQ_F) 7/18 +$2,730.00 per contract
Short 30yr ($ZB_F) 5/13 +$9,093.75 per contract
Short Dollar ($DX_F) 9/19 -$135.00 per contract
Long Euro ($6E_F) 9/19 +$137.50 per contract
Long Pound ($6B_F) 9/12 +$1,568.75 per contract
Long Gold ($GC_F) 8/16 -$3,250.00 per contract