Jul 11

Trend Following Update – Exiting Long Dollar, Short Euro

After yesterday’s huge reversals we saw a decent follow through today in the major currencies, triggering exit signals in our Long Dollar and Short Euro positions. We have exited both at tonight’s open for respective losses of $1,900.00 and $3,400.00 per contract. The rebound in the Yen and Sterling wasn’t quite enough to trigger exits and they remain valid for now. This leaves us SHORT 30yr, 10yr, Yen, Sterling, Gold, and LONG Oil.

Long Dollar ($DX_F) 7/8 -$1,900.00 per contract

The dollar sliced back through first support and continued to be very volatile throughout the day, enough to trigger an exit from what had looked a strong uptrend. Given the ranges and volatility we’ve seen now it’s unlikely we’ll see a signal in this or the Euro for a while until a more consistent and efficient trend emerges.



Short Euro ($6E_F) 7/8 -$3,400.00 per contract

This was a vicious reversal and it serves as reminder of how quickly something can go wrong, but more importantly how once it’s happened we need to recognize it and act accordingly. It’s never fun to have moves like this work against us, but as long as you’ve clearly identified at what level your rationale is wrong and used that as the basis for your position size, then even moves like this become tolerable and within your expectations.



Our remaining positions are as follows:-


Short 30yr ($ZB_F) 5/13 +$9,531.25 per contract

Short 10yr ($ZN_F) 5/13 +$4,703.125 per contract


Short Japanese Yen ($6J_F) 7/8 -$2,650.00 per contract

Short Sterling ($6B_F) 7/8 -$1,881.25 per contract


Long Crude Oil ($CL_F) 7/5 +$3,430.00 per contract

Short Gold ($GC_F) 4/5 +$29,930.00 per contract




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