Jul 17

Trend Following Update – Exiting Short 10yr, Entering Long S&P, NASDAQ

As indicated earlier we got three signals on our futures portfolio today which we’ve executed at tonight’s open. We covered our Short 10yr position for a profit of $4,000 per contract, and entered Long S&P and NASDAQ.

As a reminder, we don’t use the signals from our futures portfolio for a market view that we then transpose to our stocks portfolio, the two are totally separate. We currently have the most open stock positions since we started, so receiving these S&P and NASDAQ signals is not us ‘only just getting bullish’, these futures trades are for when specific trend criteria for this system are met, ie defined trends that possess a level of strength and efficiency.

Going into Thursday we will be SHORT 30yr, Yen, Sterling, Gold, and LONG S&P, NASDAQ, Oil.

Let’s go through tonight’s signals:-

Short 10yr ($ZN_F) 5/13 +$4,000.00 per contract

We’d made it clear we would need a convincing break of the 10 and 20 EMA’s that have so tightly held this trend, as well as the price resistance of 126^16 to 126^22.5, and we got it all at once today to trigger our exit.



Long S&P ($ES_F) 7/18 +$0.00 per contract

I thought this might have triggered earlier with the stair-stepping action beyond the break of the 20EMA, but I’m relaxed to take this here because given how rapidly we rose to all time highs, the consolidation of the last 4 days is impressively tight and has given back very little ground. The two previous resistance levels around 1666 and 1647 also have the 10 and 20 EMA’s nearby, so it would be no surprise to see them act as good support levels should we ease off a little further before resuming the long-term uptrend.



Long NASDAQ ($NQ_F) 7/18 +0.00 per contract

It’s a similar setup with the NASDAQ with those 10 and 20 EMA’s in close proximity to the previous resistance levels around 3025 and 2994. So many times before we’ve received these signals that appear to be late, or when you might expect the market to pull back, and often they surprise us. This would be no exception.



Our other open positions are as follows:-

Short 30yr ($ZB_F) 5/13 +$8,281.25 per contract

Short Japanese Yen ($6J_F) 7/8 -$1,950.00 per contract

Short Sterling ($6B_F) 7/8 -$2,062.50 per contract

Long Crude Oil ($CL_F) 7/5 +$5,120.00 per contract

Short Gold ($GC_F) 4/5 +$27,680.00 per contract



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