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Sep 30

Trend Following Update – Exiting Short 30yr

As mentioned in our weekend review we got the exit signal we thought likely today, with the 30yr finally closing above our stop and triggering our exit which we executed at tonight’s open for a profit of $8,906.25 per contract.

This leaves us LONG S&P, NASDAQ, Euro, Pound, Gold, and SHORT Dollar.

Short 30yr ($ZB_F) 5/13 +$8,906.25 per contract

It wasn’t exactly the emphatic invalidation we thought it could be, ending instead by limping across the line, but it was still enough for us to call time on what has been our longest trade this year clocking in at 4 1/2 months and over 100 trading days. When you run a winner that long it gives you a really good perspective on what does and doesn’t matter. During the course of this trade it has been ‘oversold’ many times, in fact most of the time, with various bullish divergences also coming and going, all accompanied by various market commentators calling a bottom, trying to be a hero. Even legendary bond managers were telling you they were bullish bonds all the way down. It emphasizes more than anything that only price pays, not news, not opinion. If you can just ride a trend out long enough it will burn in your memory the 4 or 5 times during the trade when you felt tempted to trim the position, thinking you could identify an extreme and time it right to increase it again, but instead you went with the trend, you followed price. Ride it out all the way just one time, and you’ll be able to do it again and again in the future.

AlphaCapture

 

Our remaining positions are as follows:-

EQUITIES

Long S&P ($ES_F) 9/18 -$1,025.00 per contract

Long NASDAQ ($NQ_F) 7/18 +$3,030.00 per contract

CURRENCIES

Short Dollar ($DX_F) 9/19 -$40.00 per contract

Long Euro ($6E_F) 9/19 +$162.50 per contract

Long Pound ($6B_F) 9/12 +$2,268.75 per contract

COMMODITIES

Long Gold ($GC_F) 8/16 -$3,760.00 per contract

 

 

 

 

 

2 comments

  1. Michael

    Great trade.

    Could you describe your approach to rolling over contracts as you seem happy to hold them long enough for rollover to matter? Particularly with something like CL. How far in advance of notice; do you strategize for minimum cost when rolling and if so how?

    Thanks.

    1. Jon Boorman

      Thank you, the charting platform I use, Genesis Trade Navigator Platinum, guides me when to roll on a liquidity basis, the R in a diamond you see on the chart indicates a week or so beforehand when the next contract month is likely to become the most liquid and therefore when you should roll. If I get a signal for a new position and that roll looks to be less than a week or so away and there isn’t much difference then I will just go to enter the next month.

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