As mentioned in our weekend review we got the exit signal we thought likely today, with the 30yr finally closing above our stop and triggering our exit which we executed at tonight’s open for a profit of $8,906.25 per contract.
This leaves us LONG S&P, NASDAQ, Euro, Pound, Gold, and SHORT Dollar.
Short 30yr ($ZB_F) 5/13 +$8,906.25 per contract
It wasn’t exactly the emphatic invalidation we thought it could be, ending instead by limping across the line, but it was still enough for us to call time on what has been our longest trade this year clocking in at 4 1/2 months and over 100 trading days. When you run a winner that long it gives you a really good perspective on what does and doesn’t matter. During the course of this trade it has been ‘oversold’ many times, in fact most of the time, with various bullish divergences also coming and going, all accompanied by various market commentators calling a bottom, trying to be a hero. Even legendary bond managers were telling you they were bullish bonds all the way down. It emphasizes more than anything that only price pays, not news, not opinion. If you can just ride a trend out long enough it will burn in your memory the 4 or 5 times during the trade when you felt tempted to trim the position, thinking you could identify an extreme and time it right to increase it again, but instead you went with the trend, you followed price. Ride it out all the way just one time, and you’ll be able to do it again and again in the future.
Our remaining positions are as follows:-
Long S&P ($ES_F) 9/18 -$1,025.00 per contract
Long NASDAQ ($NQ_F) 7/18 +$3,030.00 per contract
Short Dollar ($DX_F) 9/19 -$40.00 per contract
Long Euro ($6E_F) 9/19 +$162.50 per contract
Long Pound ($6B_F) 9/12 +$2,268.75 per contract
Long Gold ($GC_F) 8/16 -$3,760.00 per contract